Uncertainty in Drought Identification Due to Data Choices, and the Value of Triangulation

Droughts are complex and gradually evolving conditions of extreme water deficits which can compromise livelihoods ecological integrity, especially in fragile arid semi-arid regions that depend on rainfed farming, such as Kitui West south-eastern Kenya. Against the background low ground-station density, 10 gridded rainfall products four temperature were used to generate an ensemble 40 calculations Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) assess uncertainties onset, duration, magnitude past droughts. These driven more by variations between than products. Remaining ambiguities drought occurrence could be resolved complementing quantitative analysis with ground-based information from key informants engaged disaster relief, effectively formulating approach SPEI-based identification aid decision making. The reported trend towards drier Eastern Africa was confirmed for majority data products, whereby effect those increasingly dry subtler just annual seasonal declines greater variation rainfall, requires further investigation. Nevertheless, effects increasing droughts already felt ground warrant decisive action.